COVID-19 Lock-down In India
The government of India declared Twentyone days lockdown, restricting the movement of the 1.3 billion population of India from the 25th of March. This was a preventive measure to check the spread of novel Coronavirus. Today on, the 4th of April we have followed 11 days of lockdown, completing more than half the duration, and how are we doing?
Let us start by looking at the total number of confirmed cases in India, compared to other prominent countries where the pandemic is most severe.
On 4th of April, confirmed cases count in India stand at 3,082. A total of 99 death with 299 recovered cases. The first confirmed case was reported on 30th January 2020. However, confirmed cases started increasing with a viral spread from 1st March 2020.
Barring Italy, China, and South Korea all other countries were at stage 1, the viral spread had just begun by 1st March 2020. [All the numbers and analysis in this article are based on data compiled by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CCSE)].
The rate of increase
Just the total number of cases do not provide many trends, we need a bit more analysis. Let us consider the rate of increase in confirmed cases. The plot below shows roughly how many new cases we saw in a day and the total number of cases on that day.
To compare the data, we can also consider a similar rate of increase in other countries.
How do we read this graph? The graph raising up (i.e positive slope) indicates the uncontrolled growth of viral spread. On the contrary, the graph going down (i.e negative slope of the graph) is an indication of the control in the viral spread. Even the flattening of the rate of increase is indicative of control in the viral spread.
The graph for China is a clear indication of viral spread is under control. The graph for India also shows a negative trend.
Is lockdown effective?
Well, let us see for more analysis. I went ahead and compared the rate of increase in confirmed cases when the total confirmed cases were at 3000 for these countries.
The table shows a pretty impressive number for India. The rate of increases is almost 50% of the least-one on the list.
Does this show, lock-down is helping? Is India able to control the viral spread?
This can not be ascertained by merely comparing numbers for countries with the most severe viral impact. If we look at some of the other countries in the Asia Pacific regions, African countries, and South American countries the facts and figures remain very similar to India. While we do not have data on lockdown dates in all these countries, it is difficult to conclude the low rate of viral spread is due to lock-down.
What population is tested
Also, another important consideration is number of people tested for coronavirus. What percentage of the total population in the country is tested for viral infection? The table shows testing per 1 million population, again comparing with most affected countries.
Less percentage of the population tested may not mean a lack of testing facility, lesser testing would mean, lesser number of symptomatic population. But coronavirus has a larger incubation period of 1 to 14 days. There are also cases of up to 27 days of incubation. The average (mean) incubation period is around 5 days. But the data used for calculating the average incubation period isn’t big enough, and we do not know much about the virus. So, there can be a bigger population that is not symptomatic yet, awaiting to catch up with the number.
So, is India doing good in controlling the viral check?
Malaria and Corona
Well, another relationship that is being discussed/studied/rumored is malaria and coronavirus. Now, here we have global malaria-endemic countries.
The population in these countries might have higher immune towards malaria virus, either they were given malaria vaccine, or exposed to the virus and treated. I examined the confirmed coronavirus cases in these countries.
Though the relationship may appear superficial(more analysis might prove either way), but the relationship suggests clues on low coronavirus spread in these countries, including India.
Back to lockdown
The limited data-set, facts, and analysis neither prove the lockdown is effective nor it concludes we don’t need to further burden our economy with the lockdown. The amount of information we know about the coronavirus is limited to make any conclusion. For now, it is best for us to continue to listen to the authorities and follow the instructions.
I have just provided a few data points analysis trying to ignite thoughts in the reader and watch the events as it unfolds.
What a time to be alive!
